If your last grocery run left you feeling like prices just keep climbing, here is some news that will not improve your mood: two of the most common items in American kitchens — tomatoes and coffee — are about to get meaningfully more expensive. A new 17% tariff on Mexican tomato imports takes effect this summer, threatening to raise prices on a food that appears in nearly every salad, sandwich, and pasta dish in the country. And that is just the start. The Trump administration is weighing a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports set to take effect August 1 — a move that could send your morning cup to prices not seen in decades. Here is what is coming, how much it will cost you, and which items on your grocery list are most at risk this summer.
The Tomato Tariff: Why This One Hits Different
The new 17% tariff on Mexican tomato imports is not a rounding error — it is a direct hit to America's most critical fresh tomato supply chain. Mexico accounts for roughly 70% of all tomatoes sold in the United States. When you pick up a tomato at the grocery store or order one on a restaurant burger, there is a very good chance it came from Sinaloa or Sonora, Mexico.
A 17% tariff on that supply does not stay with the importer — it passes along the chain. The question is just how quickly the prices reach grocery shelves, and by exactly how much.
- Current average tomato price: approximately $1.89 per pound at grocery stores nationally
- Estimated post-tariff impact: 15 to 25 cents per pound added to retail prices, depending on retailer margins
- Who feels it most: households that buy fresh produce regularly, and restaurants that depend on bulk tomato supply for burgers, salads, and sauces
- Timeline: tariff costs typically hit grocery shelves within four to eight weeks of taking effect
The timing is particularly painful. Grocery inflation has already been rising throughout 2026, climbing from 1.9% in January to 2.4% in May — driven in part by the earlier wave of broad tariffs that average 10 to 13% on most imported goods. This represents the highest average tariff rates since the 1940s, and American households are already paying an estimated $1,500 more per year across all tariff-affected categories. The tomato tariff adds a specific, targeted hit on top of that baseline. For a broader look at the full tariff picture, see our breakdown of which U.S. tariffs are expiring in July and what you'll still pay more for.
The domestic alternative exists but does not scale easily. Florida and California produce tomatoes, but combined domestic output cannot come close to covering the volume that Mexico supplies. Prices will rise before supply chains have time to adjust.
Coffee Could Be Next — and the Stakes Are High
If the proposed 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports goes into effect August 1, the impact would be felt in every kitchen, office break room, and coffee shop in the country. Brazil supplies roughly 30% of all coffee beans consumed in the United States, and 50% is not a marginal tariff — it is a supply chain shock measured in dollars per bag at the grocery store.
Coffee prices were already elevated before this proposal. A combination of weather-related crop stress in major growing regions and general agricultural inflation had pushed roasted coffee prices up significantly in 2025 and into 2026. Another round of tariff-driven cost increases would accelerate that trend sharply.
"The tariffs on Brazilian coffee would likely show up in consumer prices within weeks, not months. The supply chain for coffee is relatively fast-moving once importers reset their cost basis." — Agricultural economist quoted by Reuters, June 2026
A 50% tariff on 30% of supply does not arithmetically raise consumer coffee prices by 15% — the real-world math is messier. Some roasters and retailers hedge their purchases months in advance and can absorb short-term shocks. Supply chains can partially reroute toward Colombian, Vietnamese, or other origins. But the long-run effect on the coffee aisle if this tariff takes effect is expected to be significant. Consumers who buy name-brand ground coffee or premium whole beans will feel it most acutely, while store brands typically have slightly more margin room to buffer the initial shock.
What Else Is Getting More Expensive at the Grocery Store
Tomatoes and coffee are the most headline-grabbing examples of tariff-driven food inflation, but they fit a broader pattern that has been building all year. Here is a snapshot of the grocery categories facing the most tariff pressure this summer:
- Tomatoes: 17% new tariff on Mexican imports — affects 70% of U.S. fresh tomato supply; price increases expected within weeks
- Coffee: 50% proposed tariff on Brazilian beans (30% of U.S. supply) — pending August 1 decision; significant price increase likely if enacted
- Chocolate and cocoa: Import costs elevated from earlier tariffs; prices already up materially from 2025 levels
- Bananas: Tariff costs working through the supply chain; prices rising moderately at most chains
- Canned goods: Steel and aluminum tariffs have raised packaging costs, passing through to canned vegetables, soups, and sauces
The June CPI report, which showed monthly inflation ticking up 0.3% — the largest single-month gain since January — makes clear these tariff effects are not hypothetical. They are already showing up in the data. Nearly 45% of U.S. consumers say they are spending "much or somewhat more" on groceries because of tariff-related price increases, according to recent survey data. That share will likely rise if the tomato and coffee tariffs take full effect. For the full picture of what May inflation looked like at the checkout counter, see our coverage of May CPI hitting a 3-year high of 4.2%.
What You Can Do Now to Protect Your Grocery Budget
There is no magic solution to tariff-driven grocery inflation. But strategic moves made before prices adjust to new tariff realities can meaningfully reduce the hit to your monthly budget.
- Stock up on canned tomatoes now. The 17% tariff applies primarily to fresh Mexican imports. Roma tomatoes in cans work well in virtually all cooked applications — sauce, soup, chili — and are a practical substitute for fresh in most recipes. Buying a supply before grocery stores absorb the full import cost can save real money over the summer.
- Buy whole-bean coffee and freeze it. Coffee stores well for months in an airtight container in the freezer. If the Brazilian tariff goes through August 1, prices at the store level will adjust quickly. Stocking up ahead of that date is one of the most effective hedges available to the average household.
- Shift to domestic or alternative-origin produce where possible. California-grown tomatoes are available at many chains and will carry no tariff premium. They may cost slightly more today but could cost meaningfully less than Mexican imports post-tariff.
- Watch store-brand alternatives. Private-label products often adjust more slowly than name brands when input costs change, as grocery chains have more pricing flexibility with their own margins. Switching brands temporarily during periods of tariff-driven inflation is a practical budget move.
For a broader set of moves to stretch your grocery and household budget through a period of elevated inflation, see our guide to 7 moves to stretch your paycheck this summer.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much will tomato prices go up because of tariffs in 2026?
The 17% tariff on Mexican tomatoes — which supply roughly 70% of U.S. fresh tomatoes — is expected to raise retail prices by 15 to 25 cents per pound in the near term. The exact increase depends on how quickly importers and grocers pass along costs, but tariff impacts typically reach store shelves within four to eight weeks of taking effect.
Will coffee prices go up in 2026 due to tariffs?
The Trump administration is considering a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports, which supply approximately 30% of U.S. coffee. If enacted August 1 as proposed, retail coffee prices would likely rise 10 to 20% over the following months, depending on how much supply can be rerouted from Colombia, Vietnam, and other origins. Buying ahead before August is a practical hedge.
Which foods are most affected by tariffs in 2026?
The grocery categories most exposed to 2026 tariff pressure are fresh tomatoes (new 17% tariff on Mexico), coffee (potential 50% tariff on Brazil), chocolate and cocoa, bananas, and canned goods where steel and aluminum packaging tariffs have raised production costs. Overall grocery inflation rose from 1.9% in January to 2.4% in May, with further increases expected.
